Analysis : Dallas County Democrats Ahead in Early Voting

Fellow Grassroots Texans:

 

With the benefit of 10 days of early voting data, we estimate that the Dallas County Democrats are ahead of the Dallas County Republicans in early voting turnout.

 

If present trends continue, we estimate that the countywide Democratic Party candidates will end up, on average, with margins of approximately 25,000 early votes over their Republican counterparts.

 

While this is a hurdle the Republican candidates would no doubt prefer to do without, it is far from insurmountable.  In 2004, Lupe Valdez was down 4% in early voting, but dominated election day voting by 8 points, thus securing a win.  In 2008, a terrible year for Republicans, the Dallas County Republicans nonetheless edged out the Democrats in election day turnout.

 

The Republicans’ situation this year is certainly a marked improvement over their situation in 2008, when they finished early voting down by approximately 75,000 votes in

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